Monday, June 06, 2005

One more piece on China

"Amidst the many uncertainties looming over China's future political and economic circumstances, one thing is evident: whatever the pace of economic development may be, China must address its rapidly growing demand for natural energy and resources. Oil will be at the top of this list. Though China's energy mix will continue to be based on coal, with oil accounting for only about 20-25% of its overall primary energy consumption, the supply of this strategic fuel will remain of critical importance to China's security."

This is from a little piece written by the Brooking Institute back in 1999. It discussed in depth the dependencies of the growth of China as a super power with oil.

I just do not make these things up. I have read the tell-tell murmurings in the neo-conic journals for some time now about the need to cut China off at the pump. Iraq was simply too easy of a target with too much support back home. Iraq provides inroads into Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Yes Gertrude we have troops there as well!!

This is China's back yard; it nearly completes the encirclement and sets the stage for de facto containment.

Consider some additional quotes from the piece relating to China and oil:

"As a result of these trends, the Middle East's share of China's oil imports, fluctuating roughly about 50%, could conceivably grow to 80% or more in the year 2010. Henceforth, with such a heavy dependence on the Middle East for oil, U.S. strategic domination over the entire region, including the whole lane of sea communications from the strait of Hormuz, will be perceived as the primary vulnerability of China's energy supply. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the key objective of China's oil strategy will be to avoid this strategic vulnerability."


"The other instrument used to create the necessary political atmosphere for its "energy-related" ties, is arms sales. Many states selling oil or oil concessions to China - Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Angola and Nigeria - are buyers of Chinese weapons. The purchase of weapons by these countries is viewed by Beijing not only as the construction of close "special" ties with the states, but also as an instrument by which to decrease its energy import bill."


"However, such aspects of U.S. energy policy towards China have become invalid with the reemergence of passionate "containment" sentiment in America. The negative developments in Chinese-American relations during 1999 have demonstrated quite visibly that the motivations for "containment" are deep rooted in the United States and cannot be attributed to the election cycle or current controversies among the U.S. political elite. Beijing could reasonably consider blocking access to their energy resources a possible future phase of "containment" policy. The perception gap between the United States and China will most probably continue to grow in the years to come."

This "possible future phase" is near at hand. Iraq was but the first step. now you know the rest of the story.